Our Response to Climate Change: HK2100

Our Planet, Climate Change and Systems Thinking

Hongshan Guo

This Week’s Battlefield

Two Sides. Two Ways of Seeing.

PRO-CLIMATE

= Systems Thinking

= “Everything is connected”

PRO-DEVELOPMENT

= Targeted Solutions

= “Fix what’s broken, one thing at a time”

The Core Tension

PRO-CLIMATE PRO-DEVELOPMENT
Holistic, interconnected Focused, targeted
Long-term ecosystem health Short-term measurable wins
Accept uncertainty Demand proven solutions
Precautionary principle Cost-benefit analysis
Everything affects everything Solve one problem at a time

This tension defines how we approach every climate intervention.

1: Revisiting Progress - At What Cost?

Introduction to Modern Progress:

  • Equating progress with industrial growth, tech advancements, and urban expansion.
  • Environmental costs often overlooked.
  • Key question: “What environmental losses have we accepted for progress?”

Example 1: Deforestation in the Amazon:

  • Accelerated deforestation post-2010s for agriculture.
  • Impact: Loss of biodiversity, carbon storage, and indigenous habitats.
  • Trade-off: Global food supply vs. ecological preservation.

Example 2: Urbanization of Green Spaces:

  • Cities like Jakarta and Beijing expanding into green areas.
  • Impact: Loss of natural spaces vital for air quality and biodiversity.
  • Trade-off: Economic growth and housing vs. green space conservation.

Example 3: Intensive Energy Extraction:

  • Shale gas boom, especially in the U.S., post-2010s.
  • Impact: Groundwater contamination, seismic activity, methane emissions.
  • Trade-off: Energy independence vs. environmental health.

2: Beyond CO2 - The Potent Greenhouse Gas Threat

The Methane Concern:

  • Methane’s Potency: Methane (CH4) is over 25 times more potent than CO2 in trapping heat in the atmosphere over a 100-year period.
  • Permafrost Thaw: Recent observations reveal accelerating permafrost thaw in the Arctic, unlocking vast methane reserves.
  • Impact: Methane release from permafrost could significantly amplify global warming, contributing to a feedback loop.

Other Potent Gases:

  • Nitrous Oxide (N2O): Emissions from agricultural activities, particularly fertilizer use, have been rising, with N2O being about 300 times more potent than CO2.
  • Industrial Gases: Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), used in air conditioning and refrigeration, have thousands of times the global warming potential of CO2.

2.1: Beyond CO2 - The Potent Greenhouse Gas Threat (Cont’d)

IPCC Models and Tipping Points:

  • Inclusion in Models: The IPCC has recently integrated permafrost melt and methane release into their climate models, highlighting the urgency of the issue.
  • Tipping Point Concerns: There’s growing scientific consensus that we might be nearing or have crossed climate “tipping points,” leading to irreversible changes.

Examples and Analogies:

  • Siberian Craters: The discovery of massive craters in Siberia, believed to be caused by methane explosions from thawing permafrost, serves as a vivid illustration of the methane threat.
  • The Ice-Albedo Feedback: As Arctic ice melts, it reveals darker water that absorbs more heat, further accelerating ice melt and methane release from permafrost - a dangerous feedback loop.

Reflection:

  • The rising threat of potent greenhouse gases challenges us to look beyond CO2 in our climate change mitigation strategies.
  • Understanding and addressing these less-discussed but highly impactful gases is crucial in our broader fight against global warming.

3: Geoengineering - A Symptomatic Treatment?

The Shift to Geoengineering:

  • Large-scale interventions in Earth’s systems
  • Focus shifts from emission causes to climate symptoms management

Key Approaches:

  • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS):
    • Removes CO2 from the atmosphere
    • Stores it underground
  • Solar Radiation Management (SRM):
    • Reflects sunlight away
    • Aims to reduce global warming

Ethical and Practical Concerns:

  • Unintended Consequences:
    • Risk of unforeseen side effects
    • Potential to worsen climate issues
  • Moral Hazard:
    • Might reduce urgency for emission cuts
    • Reliance on technological fixes

4: Questioning “Progress” and “Modernity”

The Untouchable Paradigms:

  • Associated with tech advancement
  • Often overlook environmental cost

Need for Paradigm Shift:

  • Sustainable Progress:
    • Incorporates sustainability
    • Balances ecological concerns
  • Inclusive Modernity:
    • Embraces diverse views
    • Values indigenous knowledge

Example: Transition to Renewable Energy:

  • Shift from fossil fuels to renewables
  • Symbolizes sustainable progress

5: Academia’s Pioneering Role

Fostering Diversity and Experimentation:

  • Universities as idea incubators
  • Promote cross-disciplinary research

Critical Thinking and Innovation:

  • Challenges established norms
  • Proposes innovative solutions

5.1: Silent Spring, or Power of Narrative

Rachel Carson, Chemist | Writer | Activist

5.2 Understanding System Thinking in Environmental Context

What is Systems Thinking?

  • Holistic Perspective: Complex systems as interconnected wholes
  • Feedback Loops: Recognizing how different elements within a system influence one another, non-linear

Interconnectivity in Nature

  • Interaction of ecosystem
  • Climate phenomena as result of interactions wtihin and between atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere and biosphere

Understanding System Thinking

  • Empowers you to see the bigger picture and recognize the ripple effects of actions
  • Encourages innovative and holistic solutions to environmental challenges through interconnectedness

5.3 Wolves’ Reintroduction to Yellowstone: Saga from 1920s to 1995

5.3.1 ReIntroduction of the Wolves

5.4 Interconnectedness of species

Building Your Systems Spectacle

The Formula (Reminder)

Fact + Human Story + Stakes = Spectacle

Weak

“Ecosystems are interconnected”

Better

“Removing wolves changed the course of rivers in Yellowstone”

Spectacle

“We killed the wolves. The rivers moved. Now we’re surprised the planet fights back?”

PRO-CLIMATE: Make It Personal

Don’t say: “Feedback loops amplify climate change.”

Say: “The ice melts. The dark water absorbs more heat. More ice melts. Your grandchildren inherit a feedback loop you started with your SUV.”

Don’t say: “Systems thinking is important.”

Say: “You thought killing the wolves was about wolves. You didn’t realize you were killing the rivers, the trees, the fish, the birds. What else are you killing right now without knowing?”

PRO-DEVELOPMENT: Paint the Picture

Don’t say: “We need targeted solutions.”

Say: “While they debate ‘interconnectedness,’ children in Delhi choke on smog. Install the air filters. Save the kids. Philosophize later.”

Don’t say: “Precaution leads to paralysis.”

Say: “Waiting for perfect systems understanding means watching people die of preventable causes. A doctor doesn’t wait for complete knowledge — they act. So should we.”

6: Urgent Climate Issues We Cannot Ignore

Rising Sea Levels:

  • Coastal erosion and flooding
  • Threatens communities and infrastructure

Biodiversity Loss:

  • Ecosystem collapse and species extinction
  • Undermines Earth’s life support systems

Water Scarcity:

  • Exacerbated by climate change
  • Threatens food security and stability

7: Rethinking Cooperation for a Sustainable Future

Beyond Competition:

  • Emphasizes global solidarity
  • Views Earth’s resources as shared

Innovative Governance:

  • Develops flexible, inclusive agreements
  • Empowers local action with global support

8: The Permafrost Time Bomb

Understanding Permafrost:

  • Frozen ground in polar regions: 24% of Northern Hemisphere land surface
  • Contains massive carbon reserves: 1700 Gigatons of carbon, 2x atmospheric carbon

The Thawing Threat:

  • Warming temperatures causing thaw, twice as fast as global average
  • Releases stored methane (25x) and CO2
  • Permafrost to decrease by 30-70% by end of 21st century.

Implications for Climate:

  • Accelerates global warming
  • Could trigger runaway climate effects

9: Modernity and Sustainability Clash

The Growth Paradigm:

  • Equates progress with economic growth
  • Often at the environment’s expense

Sustainable Alternatives:

  • Rethinks progress with ecological balance
  • Prioritizes long-term environmental health

Cultural Shift Needed:

  • From consumption-driven to sustainability-focused
  • Values diversity and ecological integrity

Example: Urban Green Initiatives:

  • Incorporates green spaces in cities
  • Promotes urban sustainability and well-being, connection to mindfulness

10: Academia’s Role in Shaping Futures

Incubator for Ideas:

  • Nurtures diverse, innovative solutions
  • Encourages interdisciplinary collaboration

Challenging the Status Quo:

  • Questions established progress narratives
  • Advocates for sustainable development models

Fostering Global Citizens:

  • Educates on climate ethics and action
  • Prepares students for global challenges

Example: Environmental Studies Programs:

  • Blend science, policy, and ethics
  • Equip students to tackle climate issues
  • How can you influence them with what you have learnt?

11: Hall of Fame: Progressive Contributions to Climate Discourse

Visionaries of Sustainability:

  • Rachel Carson: Her seminal work “Silent Spring” (1962) is often credited with launching the modern environmental movement, highlighting the adverse effects of pesticides on the environment.
    • Sparked widespread public concern for environmental protection and conservation.
  • Al Gore: Former U.S. Vice President and environmentalist, known for his efforts in raising awareness about global warming, notably through his documentary “An Inconvenient Truth” (2006).
    • Played a pivotal role in making climate change a mainstream issue.

Pioneers of Climate Science:

  • James Hansen: A climatologist whose 1988 testimony before the U.S. Congress was crucial in bringing national attention to global warming.
    • Advocated for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and conducted pivotal climate research.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Established in 1988, this body has been instrumental in assessing and synthesizing climate research, providing a scientific basis for policy action.
    • Its periodic assessment reports are crucial resources for understanding climate change.

12: Hall of Fame: Conservative Perspectives on Environmental Policy

Skeptics and Critics:

  • Bjørn Lomborg: An environmental writer known for his book “The Skeptical Environmentalist” (2001), where he argues that many environmental concerns are exaggerated.
    • Advocates for prioritizing other global issues like poverty over climate change initiatives.
  • The Heritage Foundation: A conservative think tank that frequently critiques the economic impacts of environmental regulations.
    • Emphasizes the potential negative effects on economic growth and personal freedoms.

Proponents of Technological and Market Solutions:

  • Julian Simon: An economist who believed human ingenuity and innovation could overcome environmental challenges and resource scarcity.
    • Famous for his bet with Paul Ehrlich, arguing against the predictive power of environmental doom.
  • Indur Goklany: An author and policy analyst who supports the use of technology and economic growth to address environmental problems, advocating for “adaptive” strategies rather than stringent regulations.
    • Argues that wealthier societies are better equipped to solve environmental problems.

13 People’s Responses

Certainly, let’s break down the responses into shorter sub-bullets for clarity:

Acknowledging Interdependence:

  • Mindful Consumption:
    • Everyday choices impact economy and environment.
    • Opting for sustainable products.
  • Waste Reduction:
    • Reducing personal waste to protect oceans and wildlife.
    • Emphasizing reuse and recycling.

Advocacy and Community Action:

  • Grassroots Movements:
    • Participation in local environmental initiatives.
    • Organizing eco-friendly community events.
  • Policy Advocacy:
    • Supporting green policies through petitions and outreach to representatives.
    • Engaging in civic activities for environmental protection.

Sustainable Living & Dietary Choices

13.1 People’s Responses

Education and Awareness:

  • Continuous Learning:
    • Staying updated on environmental issues.
    • Spreading awareness among personal networks.
  • Youth Engagement:
    • Teaching children about environmental responsibility.
    • Family projects focused on sustainability.

Support for Innovation and Technology:

  • Embracing Green Tech:
    • Investing in home solar panel systems.
    • Supporting advancements in sustainable technology.
  • Sustainable Investments:
    • Assessing the environmental impact of personal investments.
    • Favoring companies with strong environmental policies.

14 Collage Examples (As promised)

14.1 Collage Examples (Cont’d)

14.2 Collage Examples (Cont’d)

14.3 Collage Examples (Cont’d)

Activity: Systems vs. Solutions Debate

Create Your Persona

PRO-CLIMATE (Systems Thinkers):

  • Ecologist studying cascade effects
  • Indigenous elder with traditional knowledge
  • Climate scientist modeling feedback loops
  • Philosopher questioning reductionist thinking

PRO-DEVELOPMENT (Targeted Solutions):

  • Engineer building air purification systems
  • Economist measuring intervention ROI
  • Public health official with limited budget
  • Politician needing visible wins before election

Who are you? What’s your story? What do you fear losing?

Human Story: The Aral Sea

The USSR diverted rivers to irrigate cotton fields. Simple, targeted solution. More cotton, more exports.

The Aral Sea disappeared. Fishing communities died. Toxic dust storms now poison children 1000km away. The climate shifted.

PRO-DEVELOPMENT says: “Hindsight is easy. They needed cotton. We need action, not paralysis.”

PRO-CLIMATE says: “They ignored the system. We’re still ignoring it. How many more Aral Seas?”

Both sides have a point. Your job: Find the story that moves people without lying.

Remember: Fact-Check Your Stories

Every story must be fact-checkable.

OK to Say

  • “Wolves changed river courses in Yellowstone” (documented)
  • “Permafrost holds 2x atmospheric carbon” (IPCC data)
  • “The Aral Sea lost 90% of its volume” (satellite images)

NOT OK

  • “All targeted interventions fail” (false generalization)
  • “Systems thinking solves everything” (unfounded)
  • “We’ve passed all the tipping points” (exaggeration)